Monday, May 15, 2006

STANLEY CUP 2006 - CONFERENCE FINALS

**** EASTERN CONFERENCE FINALS ****
Carolina Hurricanes vs. Buffalo Sabres : Hmmm.... two teams with rookie goaltenders...in the Conference Finals. There has to be an edge somewhere, so let's find it. Carolina did win the regular season series against Buffalo 3 games to 1. Buffalo beat a strong Philadelphia Flyers team, and the favored Ottawa Senators in their first two rounds of the playoffs, thanks to terrific team play which seems to only get better as the playoffs go on. The Hurricanes were strong all year, and have been a near unstoppable force in the playoffs after replacing ineffective goaltender Martin Gerber with rookie netminder Cam Ward after dropping the first two games of their first round series against Montreal; the result was a seven game win streak - four against Montreal, followed by three straight against the New Jersey Devils; the latter came in riding a 15 game win streak dating back to the last 11 games of the regular season. The 'Canes eventually sent the Devils to the golf course in five games; outscoring the New Jersey team 17-10 in the process.
Buffalo outscored Ottawa 16-13 on the way to eliminating the favored Senators in five games. rookie goalie Ryan Miller was strong after a shaky start in game one, although Buffalo did ultimately prevail 7-6 in OT in that game. Four games later, rookie Jason Pominville scored the series clinching goal on a short-handed rush in overtime. It was a microchosm of the hustle and urgency with which the Sabres played the entire series. Ottawa Captain Daniel Alfredsson seemed to be wearing cement skates as the rookie forward went around him like a speeding car dodging road kill, on his way to beating rookie goaltender Ray Emery.
The Carolina Hurricanes and Buffalo are both 7-3 in this playoff season. This series will come down to the intangibles - leadership and drive. While Buffalo has proven to have as much grit as any team out there, I believe the Sabres will ultimately fall short due to the number of veteran leaders and game breakers on the roster of the Carolina Hurricanes. Doug Weight, Rod Brind'Amour, Mark Recchi, Ray Whitney and Cory Stillman, should be the difference makers, as well as splendid youngster Eric Staal. This is not to in any way sell short the drive and determination of the Sabres, they will be a very tough "out", and we all know about Chris Drury and his history of clutch performances and big goals. This will be a hugely entertaining series.
**** WESTERN CONFERENCE FINALS****
The Mighty Ducks of Anaheim, and the Edmonton Oilers continue to roll. The Anaheim team dismissed Joe Sakic and his vaunted Colorado squad in a four game sweep in which the Avalanche never did pose a serious threat. The Ducks outscored the Avs 16-4 in the series.
The surprising Edmonton Oilers dropped the first two games of their series against San Jose Sharks, and then proceeeded to sweep the next four games to take the series. The series clinching 2-0 win in game six was their most fundamentally sound game of the series, the Oilers killed offpower play after power play, and also generated 7 breakaway chances....yes, seven. Sharks Goaltender Vesa Toskala kept the game from becoming a truly embarrassing moment in team history.
The stage is now set for these two unlikely but very similar contenders to compete for the right to represent the Conference in the Stanley Cup Finals.
Both teams have Norris Trophy winning defensemen, Scott Niedermayer for the Mighty Ducks(2004), and Chris Pronger for Edmonton(2000), the latter was also League MVP in 2000.
Both teams rely on speed, quickness and strong forechecking. Both teams have received strong Goaltending throughout the playoffs; Ilya Bryzgalov for Anaheim, and Dwayne Roloson for Edmonton. The Oilers were 4-0 in the regular season series vs. Anaheim, outscoring the Ducks 18-11 overall, scoring 16 goals in the first three games. Also keep in mind the Ducks have not won a game on the Oilers' home ice since 1999. Fortunately for the Anaheim squad, the Ducks will enjoy home ice advantage in this series.
The breakdown - Edmonton exposed San Jose's previously unknown lack of overall depth & toughness in their Conference semi final victory, wearing the Sharks down further and further as the series went on. When the Oilers stopped Joe Thornton and Patrick Marleau, they stopped the Sharks. The Mighty Ducks are a solid four lines deep, it will take an even stronger effort from the Oilers than they had in the last round if they are to defeat this tough Anaheim squad, a squad which against Calgary proved they could not be bullied or outworked, and against Colorado proved they could shut down offensive minded teams without having to sacrifice their own offensive output. Dwayne Roloson is the key to this series. Edmonton does not have the personnel to check all four of the Ducks lines, thus Roloson will be called upon to make many huge saves at key moments. Speedy forwards Ryan Smyth, Shawn Horcoff and Sergei Samsonov will have to make huge contributions. The Toughness of Michael Peca and Raffi Torres will also need to play a big part if the Oilers are to continue this most unlikely run.
The most pleasant surprise for the Ducks, their fans, and first year Head Coach Randy Carlyle has been the emergence and continued strong and clutch play of the teams younger players, namely Dustin Penner, Ryan Getzlaf, Joffrey Lupol, Andy McDonald and defenseman Francois Beauchemin, and did I mention their rookie goaltender Ilya Bryzgalov enters the series leading the league in both Goal against average (0.87) and save percentage (.967) ? Edmonton did own the Ducks in the regular season, but that point is now moot. This series will be a spectators delight, and a series in which the Ducks will ultimately prevail due to their superior depth. See ya'.

Friday, May 05, 2006

Stanley Cup 2006 ( 2nd Round )

What the heck happened in the Western Conference ? The top four seeds all lost in the first round. Detroit, Dallas, Calgary & Nashville, with Calgary being the only team to even force a 7th game....Oh how the mighty have fallen. The Red Wings were victims of questionable goaltending by Manny Legace, as well as being outworked in key moments (there is a very fine line between having a lot of "good solid veteran players on the roster", and having "a bunch of old guys on the roster") by a younger, quicker Edmonton Oilers team which at times looked overmatched, but ultimately did prevail, winning the series clinching game six by overcoming a 2 goal deficit and scoring 4 goals in the third period. This was Steve Yzerman's final season, it will be sad to see him go, but the great memories will live on - Stevie Y was a class act to the end.
The Stars were simply outworked in most of their games ( but then again, goaltender Marty Turco didn't exactly set the world on fire either). The Colorado Avalanche unceremoniously dumped the Stars in five games.The Nashville Predators also had problems in net, as goaltender Tomas Vokoun who had anchored the team all year, was unavailable due to illness. The San Jose Sharks smelled blood, and down went the Predators in five games - losing four straight after taking game 1. Goaltending was not the only issue.The San Jose Sharks were the better team all around, and I believe, have been the leagues' best team for the past two months ( the New Jersey Devils' 15 game win streak not withstanding). San Jose will be hard to stop, Joe Thornton and Patrick Marleau form the best 1st and 2nd line Center combo in the league, Vesa Toskola has been strong in goal, and the rash of 1st round upsets leave the Sharks as the highest seeded team in the Western Conference, and thus with home Ice advantage for at least the next two rounds .
The Calgary Flames took 2 of the first 3 games in their series against the Mighty Ducks of Anaheim, only to then lose three of the next four games (and the series) to the fast-maturing Anaheim squad. The defining moment may have come early in Game 6, when Flames' captain Jarome Iginla decided to drop the gloves with the Ducks' rookie defensman Francois Beauchemin. Iginla was quickly dropped with a left hook the would have made the late Sugar Ray Robinson proud. Iginla did regain his feet, but the tone was set. Iginla was held to only one shot on goal in game six, and again in game seven. The Ducks put together their most solid performances in games six and seven, outworking the Flames in all three zones (offensive, neutral, and defensive) of the ice. Another key move was Coach Randy Carlyle's decision to start Ilya Bryzgalov in goal in games 6 and 7 ( Ilya is now riding a string of five straight shutout periods) instead of J.S. Giguere who had been less than spectacular in games 2 - 5, being pulled in game 5 after allowing 3 goals on only eight Calgary shots ( Anaheim lost the game by a score of 3-2). Expect the Ducks to ride Bryzgalov the rest of the way, and for Giguere to quite possibly wind up in Detroit in the off-season, playing for his former coach Mike Babcock (the latter part being pure speculation of course).
I cannot recall the last time that the 5, 6, 7, and 8 seeds in the same conference all prevailed in the first round.
The first round of the Eastern Conference was far less dramatic, The Ottawa Senators, Carolina Hurricanes, New Jersey Devils and Buffalo Sabres were seeded numbers 1 thru 4 respectively, and all were winners - 'nuff said.
**** 2nd ROUND BREAKDOWN ****
Western Conference; #5 San Jose Sharks vs. #8 Edmonton Oilers - The Sharks went thruogh the Nashville Predators like a hot knife through butter; likewise the Oilers were surprisingly able to upset the top-seeded Red Wings in the 1st round. The task at hand for the Oilers is to somehow find a way to either stop, or match the offensive output of the San Jose Sharks' devastating combo of Joe Thornton and Jonathan Cheechoo, as well as the surprising 2nd line combo of Captain Patrick Marleau, flanked by surprising rookies Steve Bernier and Milan Michalek. Chris Proger anchors the Oilers' defense, while up front, they will rely on the veteran leadership of Ryan Smyth and Michael Peca. Goaltender Dwayne Roloson will also have to make some huge saves. The bottom line - The only chance the Oilers have is to play as a complete and disciplined team, they do have youth, and speed. The Sharks will seek to take advantage of sometimes lackluster play of the Oilers, in which case they can score in bunches. This will be a fun series to watch, if you appreciate speed & skill. The Oilers do have a bright future, but the road will end here....Sharks will prevail.
#6 Anaheim Mighty Ducks vs. # 7 Colorado Avalance - The Mighty Ducks played near - perfect hockey in games 6 and 7 to eliminate the favored Calgary Flames in the first round, showing dramatic improvement and maturation in the process. Rookie Goaltender Ilya Bryzgalov was nothing short of brilliant when needed. The Avs have the edge in experience, with a roster that includes future hall of famer Joe Sakic, and hard hitting defenseman Rob Blake (both wre members of the 2001 Avalance Cup-winning team). The bottom line - The Mighty Ducks while facing elimination in games 6 and 7 in the first round, came up with tremendous efforts in both games. The Mighty Ducks will now play a Colorado team which during the regular season allowed more goal against than any Western Conference playoff team. Jose Theodore has yet to prove himself as a clutch playoff goaltender....The Avalanche will melt; the Mighty Ducks will continue to fly high.
EASTERN CONFERENCE
#1 Ottawa Senators vs. #4 Buffalo Sabres - Two teams riding rookie goaltenders; Ray Emery in net for Ottawa, and Ryan Miller in net for Buffalo. Ottawa was an offensive juggernaut in the regular season, leading the league in goals scored with 314, and dismissed the Tampa Bay Lightning in the 1st round with little difficulty. The Buffalo Sabres eliminated Philadelphia in six games, but would have eliminated them in four or five were they more disciplined. Again, two teams which like to skate (new NHL rules having an affect ?). I like the Ottawa Senators to put more pressure on Ryan Miller than did the Flyers. Buffalo is up & coming, but not this year. Ottawa prevails.
#2 Carolina Hurricanes vs. # 3 New Jersey Devils - Yet another rookie goaltender, as Cam Ward is between the pipes for the favored Carolina Hurricanes. The Carolina Hurricanes boast a lineup which includes a couple of hungry veteran Stars who'd love to finally get their names on the Stanley Cup (Rod Brind'Amour, Doug Weight), as well as former Cup Winner Mark Recchi (Pittsburgh 1991). Nothing really needs to be said about the New Jersey Devils a team which returns to the playoffs with a roster deep in seasoned veterans, and the most disciplined team system in hockey, a system which produced Cup winners in 1995, 2000, and 2003, as well as a trip to the Finals in 2001. Seemingly unflappable Goaltender Martin Brodeur ( a future hall of famer ) has been there from the start. Tough series, Devils prevail in seven games. Enjoy. See ya'.